ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER- DEFINED AND A LITTLE SMALLER. IN ADDITION THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A RATHER SYMMETRIC AND WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...THOUGH THE ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS NORBERT IS CLEARLY STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL IF AND WHEN NORBERT WILL COMPLETE ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. IF IT DOES FINISH THE CYCLE...THE SHEAR AND WATER CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE...LIKE THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE STATISTICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND WERE CERTAINLY MORE ACCURATE THAN THE GFDL/HWRF YESTERDAY. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE OVERDONE SINCE THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM IS CONTRIBUTING STRONGLY TO THE DECREASING FORECAST IN SHIPS...AND THE GFS MODEL IS WEAKENING THE HURRICANE FASTER THAN ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...A SLOW WEAKENING OF NORBERT IS FORECAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...SHOWING THE SYSTEM NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DUE TO MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF SLOWDOWN THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MADE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT 6 KT. COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SAVE THE PESKY GFS MODEL...ON A TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP- LAYERED TROUGH. THE SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE NOW LESS NOTICEABLE AND GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BECOME MORE CLUSTERED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 18.9N 113.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 19.9N 113.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 21.6N 113.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 23.4N 112.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.4N 110.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 30.0N 107.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN NNNN
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