ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE ONLY. BASED ON THE BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. AS EXPRESSED THIS MORNING...BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE COMPLICATED AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE UK AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT TO MEXICO EVENTUALLY. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE DEPRESSION BECOMES ABSORBED BY IT. EVEN THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE GFDL KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNS IT NORTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. I AM STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE SINCE I HAVE TO CHOOSE ONE OF THESE RELIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS. THE UK AND ECMWF MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT LOOKS MORE REALISTIC AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE THE NEW CYCLONE PRODUCED BY THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. WE SHALL SEE. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH FIVE DAYS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT BE ABSORBED BY THE NEW GFS CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 14.2N 100.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 14.3N 101.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 104.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 16.0N 106.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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