ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY IMPORVING. THE OUTFLOW IS ONLY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THE STEERING AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE ABSORBED BY A NEW CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE DEPRESSION AS THE ONLY CYCLONE AND MOVE IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST COULD BE DEVELOPING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS ALL MODELS BUT THE GFS AND KEEPS THE DEPRESSION ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT I COULD BE SORRY LATER ON THAT I DID NOT FOLLOW THE RELIABLE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.0N 99.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.1N 99.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.2N 100.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 101.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 15.0N 102.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC