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Tropical Storm MARIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ITS CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
SINCE THIS MORNING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER MARIE ALSO SUPPORTED AN
INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED USED FOR THE
CURRENT ADVISORY.  MARIE IS NOT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONTINUED GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
INTO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND MARIE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO REMNANT
LOW STATUS IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONSENSUS...ICON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST
DRIFT...160/3.  AS MARIE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG 25N-30N WEST OF 120W WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH WESTWARD STEERING.  INSTEAD...
MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT MARIE OR ITS LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF
NORBERT.  BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
HINTS AT SUCH A TRACK BY TURNING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
LEFT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARIE LEFT TO DEAL WITH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 18.8N 122.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.7N 123.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.3N 125.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC