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Tropical Storm MARIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
 
MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AN AVERAGE OF THE T
AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 40
KT.  ALTHOUGH SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT BE DECREASING
ANY FURTHER...MARIE IS EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT...
AND THEREFORE A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY IS FORECAST...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  THE STATISTICAL
MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING TREND WHILE THE HWRF AND
GFDL SOMEWHAT SLOWER.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT MARIE BRIEFLY DRIFTED
EASTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT MAY HAVE TURNED BACK TO THE WEST. 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED AS STATIONARY FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MARIE...AND IF THE SYSTEM
IS DEEP ENOUGH IT WOULD RESPOND BY TURNING WESTWARD.  AS MARIE
DECAYS...HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN PERHAPS BACK TO THE EAST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL
STORM NORBERT.  THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG VORTEX ON A 
PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK... BUT INTERESTINGLY THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN DOES NOT...AND NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 18.9N 122.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N 122.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 123.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 124.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 124.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC