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Tropical Storm MARIE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
 
MARIE IS SUCCUMBING TO THE EFFECTS OF COLDER WATER AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE...AND THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A 45-KT ADT ESTIMATE FROM
UW-CIMSS AT 0000 UTC.  DEGENERATING EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES
LIKE MARIE TEND TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THEY ENCOUNTER A
HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SINCE THEY CANNOT MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS
MARIE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS
FAST AS THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WOULD ALLOW SHOULD THE DEEP CONVECTION
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE.  MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
48 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THEN.  THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BY DAY 5.
 
MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ALL DAY BUT MAY BE FINALLY MAKING A
SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT 335/3. A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MARIE'S CIRCULATION IS ADVECTED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT CORRECTLY ANTICIPATED THE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONCE
MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP
SOUTHWARD...AND IN SOME CASES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN...BETWEEN
72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS DRAMATIC...BUT TRENDS
TOWARD A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DISSIPATION WITHIN THE ITCZ
BY DAY 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 18.9N 122.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N 122.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 123.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 124.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 18.9N 125.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 18.2N 127.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
 
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