Hurricane MARIE

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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008
 
GOES-10 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MARIE HAD A
WELL-DEFINED BUT SMALL 12 NM WIDE EYE AROUND 2100 UTC...AND THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WAS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO YIELD A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF T4.5 AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE
HAS FILLED SOMEWHAT AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS
CIRCULAR AND SQUEEZED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS.  0000 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T4.0...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 65 KT EVEN THOUGH MARIE COULD HAVE BEEN
A LITTLE STRONGER FOR A SHORT TIME.
 
MARIE HAS HIT THE BRICK WALL OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN
IT AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE RECENT SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN
A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM.  A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND TURN TO THE WEST WILL COMMENCE AFTER 48
HOURS ONCE MARIE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER TRADES.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...AT
THE TIME WHEN MARIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE NORTH BUT
THEN RE-CONVENES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 72-120 HOURS.
 
WITH MARIE HAVING MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE CONTENDING WITH SELF-INDUCED COLD UPWELLING.  SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY MARGINAL AT 26C...AND THE 20C ISOTHERM...A
PROXY FOR THE THERMOCLINE...IS ONLY ABOUT 50 METERS DEEP AT MARIE'S
LOCATION.  THESE COLD UPWELLED WATERS MAY PROHIBIT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
KEEPS MARIE AS A 65-KT HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN LINE
WITH VIRTUALLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  AFTER THAT...MARIE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.  THE NHC FORECAST WEAKENS
MARIE TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 4 AND A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
MODELS...INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE
MARIE BEFORE DAY 5.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 17.9N 122.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N 123.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 18.6N 124.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N 125.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
 
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