ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...NORMALLY CORRESPONDING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE T4.0...65 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE. GENERALLY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST NEAR MARIE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE SSTS AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY CHANGE. HIGH RESOLUTION SST MAPS SUGGEST THAT MARIE IS OVER A WARM RIDGE...BUT WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MARIE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE NEW FORECAST STILL SHOWING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT OF MARIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD THEN CAUSE A FASTER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER SLOWING A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. IN GENERAL THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST WEST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 17.6N 122.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.7N 122.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 17.9N 122.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.2N 123.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 127.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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