Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MARIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2008

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE IS EXPOSED
TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS. 
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT
15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.  WHILE
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO A TONGUE OF STABLE STRATUS
CLOUDS SEEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT...AND THIS REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE
U. S. WEST COAST...AND THIS IS LIKELY WEAKENING THE RIDGE NORTH OF
MARIE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS LAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER...
THE TROUGH IS NOT DIGGING SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIE TO TURN
NORTHWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH THE HWRF...GFS...
AND BAMD SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION WHILE THE NOGAPS AND THE
UKMET SHOW A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION.  THERE IS ALSO SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE RATHER SLOW ECMWF AND GFDN...AND THE
FASTER UKMET AND HWRF.  GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
NOGAPS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MARIE IS MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS WITH THE CENTER
OVER 25-26C SSTS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT SATELLITE
APPEARANCE SUGGESTS THAT STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS MAY ALREADY
BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO.  BASED ON THIS AND THE UPCOMING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT MARIE HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY
AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THIS TIME ON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 18.0N 120.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.2N 121.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.3N 122.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC