ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2008 IT APPEARS THAT LOWELL HAS DECOUPLED THIS MORNING. THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER AND REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DISCONTINUED. QUIKSCAT DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE LOWELL IS QUICKLY BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK. THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 23.3N 110.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 108.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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