ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 200 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008 LOWELL IS A PERSISTENT CYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 1342 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAINS NEAR 30 KT SO THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. LOWELL WILL BE CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY CAUSE LOWELL TO WEAKEN. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION RESULTING IN DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL WILL BE MOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WHERE THE TERRAIN IS QUITE HIGH. REGARDLESS OF LOWELL'S STATUS AT THAT TIME...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM COULD GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. LOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 035/06. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 22.8N 111.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 23.8N 111.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.4N 110.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 27.4N 109.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:42 UTC