ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008 LOWELL'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER SLOPPY LOOKING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 30 KT. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 12-24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOWELL TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WHAT'S LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...ESPECIALLY NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 22.3N 112.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 23.0N 111.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 24.3N 110.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 109.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 109.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:42 UTC