Tropical Depression LOWELL

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
LOWELL HAS BEEN PRODUCED SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT EACH BURST HAS BEEN SMALLER IN BOTH AREAL
COVERAGE AND DURATION.  IN FACT...THE CYCLONE BECAME CONVECTION
FREE FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND 0500 UTC.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC
WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
LOWELL.  THE ASCAT DATA REVEALED 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT WINDS. 
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT...
WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES 
ON GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL COULD
REGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE OVER SSTS OF 26-27 DEGREES
CELSIUS.  ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
 
LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-36 HOURS...THEN INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SOLUTION AND IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  SINCE LOWELL HAS BECOME A WEAKER AND MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MORE
VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM.

EVEN THOUGH RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST...IT IS BEST TO KEEP
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT
LOWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.8N 111.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N 110.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 26.7N 110.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N 109.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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