ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. LOWELL IS ENCOUNTERING A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THERE IS SOME STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THUS FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. IF LOWELL CANNOT GENERATE NEW CONVECTION... WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHATS LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 96 HOURS FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 21.0N 113.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 22.4N 113.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 24.7N 111.8W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z 29.0N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:42 UTC