ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008 ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT JULIO IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0135 UTC SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS ABOVE 35 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. JULIO IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST JULIO TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN...WITH THE GUIDANCE CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF JULIO BY THAT TIME. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT WESTWARD...WITH JULIO PASSING ON THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE RESULTING DECREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS THE CENTER IS OVER WARM WATER OR NOT OVER LAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...JULIO IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR... WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST PREVENT INTENSIFICATION EVEN IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.5N 109.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 22.7N 110.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 24.1N 111.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 112.1W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.7N 112.7W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0600Z 28.5N 113.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0600Z 30.5N 114.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC