Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2008
 
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS A 13/1017Z
TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 185 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN-E. CURVED BANDING NOTED IN THE TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...BUT THE RAPID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY NOT HAVE
TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST GFDL MODEL RUN
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BACK TAKING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE
TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLY
WEAKENING THE CYCLONE IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.

ALTHOUGH THE OVERNIGHT BURST OF CONVECTION WAS IMPRESSIVE AND
HELPED TO QUICKLY SPIN UP THE WIND FIELD...THIS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND DERIVED WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS
REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 2 WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 16.3N 105.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 110.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 111.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC