ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2008 HERNAN CONTINUES ITS SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES OVER MODESTLY COOLER WATERS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 80 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER HERNAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO WEAKENING SHOULD COME FROM THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WARMER. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS PREDICTION. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/8. THE HURRICANE HAD BEEN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HERNAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY FORCE A CONTINUED TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND QUITE CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.7N 126.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 18.2N 127.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.5N 129.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 130.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 17.2N 134.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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