ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008 HERNAN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. HAVING SAID THAT...HERNAN SHOULD BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS HERNAN WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS. HERNAN COULD BE NEARING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. HERNAN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/09. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF HERNAN. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.5N 122.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.8N 123.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 16.5N 125.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.3N 128.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 17.5N 132.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:38 UTC