ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008 AFTER A NOTICEABLE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CDO FEATURE NOW PRESENT WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED EYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW AT T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HERNAN IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AMONGST OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS AND...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...HERNAN SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26 CELSIUS SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS BASIS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT HERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION APPARENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT HINDRANCES TO STRENGTHENING...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE HEADING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...AFTER REVIEWING A HOST OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED. MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BE STEERED MORE WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON A MORE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 14.7N 119.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.8N 121.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.1N 123.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 135.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB/KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:38 UTC