ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BENEATH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THIS TREND. WITH COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GENEVIEVE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE GENEVIEVE IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PROVIDES POINTS OUT TO DAY 4. THE LAST FEW MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. SOON TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.9N 122.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 124.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.4N 128.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.6N 129.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 31/0000Z 18.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:37 UTC