ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN A CURVED BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY WHICH IS NOW 50 KNOTS. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND SHOULD MORE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY TE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.4N 120.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 18.2N 124.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 31/1200Z 19.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:37 UTC