Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE

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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER
COOLER WATERS AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN A CURVED
BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND SO DOES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WHICH IS NOW 50 KNOTS. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND THE CYCLONE
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. 

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAKER AND SHOULD MORE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY TE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.4N 120.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 124.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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