ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 800 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2008 A 0853Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE WAS BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A COLD TOP BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PERSISTING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION IS LIMITED...INDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS WHICH SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES WERE QUITE HELPFUL THIS MORNING IN ESTIMATING THE MOTION...NOW DUE WEST AT 8 KT...WITH A SLIGHT POSITION ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GENEVIEVE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.0N 109.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 15.1N 110.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 15.2N 112.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.3N 113.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 15.5N 115.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 125.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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