ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FAUSTO CONTINUES DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE BOTH IN THE INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN STEADY AT A 4.5 AT 18Z. HOWEVER...ADT SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER CYCLONE WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER ABOUT ONE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES. AN EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS ANALYZED FAUSTO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 82 AND 87 KT FROM THE CIMSS AND CIRA METHODS...RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES AT 80 KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...THOUGH THESE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THE STATION IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 35 M. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A HEADING OF 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE LEFT IS IMPLIED BY THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES. FAUSTO'S TRACK IS BEING DETERMINED BY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INFLUENCED AS WELL BY THE DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. AS FAUSTO BEGINS TO DECAY IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT SHOULD INCREASINGLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST ISSUED PREVIOUSLY. FAUSTO IS LIKELY TO BEGIN A RATHER QUICK DECAY AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE AT DAY 4 OR 5. A 1250Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.7N 113.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.7N 114.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.7N 117.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.2N 119.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 121.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB NNNN
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