ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STRONG SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. THEREFORE..THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AS A NOTE...THE HWRF MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO 116 KNOTS BY 84 HOURS...AND THIS IS A BIG INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH BASICALLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. FAUSTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS IS THE PATTERN PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONLY THE ECMWF IS OUTSIDE AND WELL-NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.4N 103.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 105.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 13.0N 109.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 111.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC