ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT EXPOSED AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 35 KNOTS. WITH WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. BY DAY 4...FAUSTO SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS AND INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE FAUSTO WAS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS FASTER MOTION COULD BE PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE REFORMATION. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED IS CLUSTERED INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.3N 99.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.6N 101.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 107.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 14.0N 108.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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