ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE OF ELIDA HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE AS YET UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...ELIDA IS PASSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.3N 119.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.7N 120.8W 85 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 18.0N 123.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC