ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008 ELIDA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WRAPPING NICELY AROUND A MICROWAVE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE T4.0...65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AT THAT TIME WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT. ELIDA STILL HAS 12-24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND THE EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS MODEST. THUS...A BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...HOWEVER...ELIDA'S PASSAGE OVER SUB-26C WATER SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE NEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS DIDN'T APPEAR TO INITIALIZE ELIDA STRONGLY ENOUGH...AND SEEMS TO MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOO QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE REMAINING PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...UKMET/GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.4N 114.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 16.6N 116.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 17.4N 121.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 17.6N 123.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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