ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC. WHILE THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AT T4.5. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ESSENTIALLY SHOW ELIDA MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE ELIDA WILL BE ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/10. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDING THE STEERING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED AS ELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.2N 111.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 112.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 115.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.4N 119.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC