Hurricane ELIDA

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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
 
ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO
AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY.  RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES
ALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT.

RECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL
SOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD
SOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE. 
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST
DUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS.  AT THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS
ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE
TOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS.  DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.   THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL
BE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE
FORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.9N 109.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 112.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.2N 117.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
 
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