Tropical Storm ELIDA

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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER
ELIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES AND IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS.  IT IS TEMPTING TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY A
LITTLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF AN EYE FORMING IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ELIDA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. 
AFTER THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD.  DUE TO THE
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS UNCHANGED THEREAFTER.

WITH THE TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...ELIDA COULD HAVE A FEW
MORE HOURS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS
ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF
PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP ELIDA BELOW 65 KT.  GIVEN THE IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND MORE TIME OVER 26 DEGREE C OR GREATER WATER...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...AND ONCE AGAIN
BRINGS ELIDA TO HURRICANE STATUS.  LOOKING AT THE INTENSITY
PROBABILITY TABLE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS ADVISORY...THE CHANCES OF
ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS ARE ABOUT 50-50.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 15.5N 106.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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