ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG BURSTING PATTERN NEAR THE CENTER OF ELIDA WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT... WITH INCREASING OUTFLOW NOTED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THAT GENERAL IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SSTS BEGIN TO COOL BELOW 80F AFTER 36 HR...SO A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL DATA SUGGEST ELIDA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ABOUT 290/13. MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WESTWARD TURN APPEARS LIKELY AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 111.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 119.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC