Tropical Storm ELIDA

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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...WHILE NEW
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER.  ASCAT DATA 
FROM 1550 UTC INDICATE THAT THE WINDS WERE AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
TO 45 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ELIDA AS THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO TO ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING...IT INSISTS THAT ELIDA WILL REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE HWRF IS VERY SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE STORM TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.  MEANWHILE...THE
LGEM AND GFDL MODELS ONLY PREDICT MODEST STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...BUT THE FORECAST IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WEAKENING IS INDICATED
AFTER 72 HOURS AS ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT.  THE 
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.6N 104.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.4N 107.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 109.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 112.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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