ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008 THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A TRACK JUST OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE COAST AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD FARTHER INLAND...SUCH A TRACK APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TAKING THE DEPRESSION INLAND WHERE RAPID DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.1N 102.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 18.6N 102.9W 25 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 103.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/1200Z 19.7N 104.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/0000Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:32 UTC