ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CRISTINA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVENTION FOR CLOSE TO 6 HOURS...AND HAS VIRTUALLY BECOME A SKELETAL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. A 1451 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED 30 KT WINDS WITHIN A THIN RAIN BAND DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.0N 132.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 13.8N 133.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.5N 135.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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