Tropical Depression CRISTINA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0958Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT CRISTINA
AS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  20 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE
LOWERED TO 30 KT.
 
PERSISTENT SHEAR...A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REDUCE CRISTINA TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. 
THIS IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
TRMM PASS AND A 0621Z AMSU-B IMAGE...CRISTINA APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CRISTINA TO
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
PRODUCED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 14.3N 131.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.2N 132.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 13.8N 134.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 13.6N 136.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 13.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
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