ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CRISTINA HAS MAINTAINED TIGHT BANDING AND MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE A CIMSS MICROWAVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. CRISTINA'S CURRENT MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT...CAUSING A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH UNREALISTICALLY HAS CRISTINA BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN ABSORBED BY BORIS. DESPITE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CRISTINA DURING THE DAY...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. IN FACT...THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE QUITE MARGINAL WITH SSTS AT 26C NOW AND COOLING TO 24C IN TWO DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.9N 126.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 127.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 14.6N 133.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0000Z 14.5N 141.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/RHOME NNNN
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