ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT STRETCHES INTO THE ITCZ...GIVING A RATHER ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH AND IT COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED AHEAD OF THREE-E. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS... ICON. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 300/8. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALBEIT JUST A TAD SLOWER. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THREE-E AND BORIS WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART SO AS TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THEIR CIRCULATIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 14.2N 123.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 14.5N 124.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 14.8N 128.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 14.9N 129.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 15.0N 133.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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