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Tropical Depression THREE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM HAS A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
STRETCHES INTO THE ITCZ...GIVING A RATHER ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH AND IT COULD BE NAMED ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED AHEAD OF THREE-E.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS...
ICON.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 300/8.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED
TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS
INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALBEIT JUST A TAD SLOWER.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FOR NOW...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THREE-E AND BORIS WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH APART SO AS TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN
THEIR CIRCULATIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 14.2N 123.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 124.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.8N 128.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.9N 129.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 15.0N 133.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:31 UTC