ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008 RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT SURFACE CIRCULATION DEFINITION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAD BEEN STRUGGLING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TO CLOSE OFF THE CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...WHICH PROBABLY WAS DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. CONSEQUENTLY...ON SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND GRADUALLY FILLS. AFTERWARD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.5N 123.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 124.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.3N 125.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 127.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.7N 129.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 134.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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