ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008 BORIS APPEARS TO FINALLY BE GIVING IN TO THE COLDER WATERS OVER WHICH IT IS MOVING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LAGGING BEHIND TO THE SOUTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 0226Z SHOWED THAT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE STILL NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THEN. CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND BORIS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 17.3N 128.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 129.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 130.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 131.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.7N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z 14.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC