Tropical Storm BORIS

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008
 
BORIS IS WEAKENING QUICKLY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED NO
BELIEVABLE VECTORS HIGHER THAN 50 KT.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM TODAY AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS.  WITH SSTS NO HIGHER
THAN 24C ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED UNTIL BORIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR
LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET...MEDIUM BAM...AND SHALLOW BAM. 
THESE MODELS ARE FASTER THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 16.9N 127.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.3N 128.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 129.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.2N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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