ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF BORIS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER TODAY IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. BORIS HAS JOGGED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/7 KT. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD WESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BORIS TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. LATER...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER BORIS SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS... UKMET...AND FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE 18Z NOGAPS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IS DISCOUNTED. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF BORIS MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SSTS WOULD DECREASE QUICKER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE THAN INDICATED BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.5N 125.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.9N 126.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 16.4N 128.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 16.8N 129.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.6N 132.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0000Z 15.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC