Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BORIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
AS IT DID AROUND THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...BORIS IS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF
AN EYE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE 65 AND 55
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT WAS 57 KT...WHILE A
CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE AT 21Z WAS 76 KT...INDICATING THAT BORIS HAS A
STRONG UPPER WARM CORE SIGNATURE.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOW
SHOWING EXCELLENT BANDING...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR 26C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
CONSEQUENTLY...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF NOW
MAINTAINS BORIS AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE AS RAPID A
DECLINE AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAN IT HAS BEEN...AS ONE BY ONE THE MODELS ARE GIVING UP ON A
TURN BACK TO THE EAST.  IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS...BUT AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY DOMINATE
THE STEERING.  CONSEQUENTLY...A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM
BAM...THE GFS...AND THE UKMET...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 14.6N 123.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.5N 124.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N 127.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 128.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 130.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 134.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC