ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008 BORIS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AND HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN EITHER. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND UNIMPRESSIVE MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BORIS COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM...12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. BORIS IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 TO 13 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A RIDGE NORTH OF BORIS STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS MOVE BORIS EASTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE DISCREPANCY AMONG TRACK MODELS IS LESS OBVIOUS. THIS CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO A REDUCTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.7N 122.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.6N 123.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.5N 127.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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