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Tropical Storm BORIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BORIS HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
 
LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SUCH A
PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  BEYOND 72
HOURS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD FORM
EAST OF BORIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING.  IN FACT...THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS BORIS LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO
THIS SCENARIO.  SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.  

BORIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH
IS CAUSING THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS LIMITING BORIS'S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN A DAY OR SO BUT BY THIS POINT BORIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 14.9N 114.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 115.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.1N 117.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.2N 119.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 120.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC