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Tropical Storm BORIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
 
BORIS' CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY COLD...-80 DEG
C...CLOUD TOPS AND THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THERE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL
BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER BORIS AS A RESULT OF AN INVERTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
OUTPUT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD FORCE A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL
TRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 13.6N 110.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 111.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 113.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 114.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 125.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC