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Hurricane PALOMA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE PALOMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008               
0900 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X      11      26      40      49
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       2      30      33      32      27
TROPICAL STORM   X       6      25      51      36      25      22
HURRICANE       99      94      74       9       5       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1      30      29       7       4       3       2
HUR CAT 2        8      41      26       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3       74      20      15       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4       16       3       3       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  110KT    95KT    65KT    45KT    35KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
MARATHON FL    34  1   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   2( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   2( 6)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   2(14)
 
ANDROS         34  1   3( 4)   9(13)   3(16)   3(19)   2(21)   1(22)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   4( 4)  18(22)   4(26)   4(30)   2(32)   X(32)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   6(17)   2(19)   1(20)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   1(16)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
HAVANA         34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   2( 7)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  5   7(12)   5(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)   2(22)
CIENFUEGOS     50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34 19  53(72)   9(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
CAMAGUEY       50  2  33(35)  15(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
CAMAGUEY       64  X  13(13)  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1   6( 7)  16(23)   4(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34 11  13(24)   7(31)   1(32)   1(33)   X(33)   1(34)
MONTEGO BAY    50  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KINGSTON       34  2   4( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)
KINGSTON       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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