Tropical Depression SIXTEEN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 6 8 12 20 35 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 69 33 25 25 9 21 NA
TROPICAL STORM 26 59 61 51 47 33 NA
HURRICANE X 2 7 11 23 12 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 2 6 9 18 9 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 4 2 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
BELIZE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 12(26) 3(29) X(29)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 2(20) X(20)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X 9( 9) 15(24) 10(34) 5(39) 1(40) X(40)
GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
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