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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
 
CONVECTION AROUND THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY MORE
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ITS CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS BUOY/HONDURAS STATION
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
 
THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.  MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 265
DEGREES AT 4 KT.  A SLOW MOTION WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
DRIVE THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN...THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASED INITIAL MOTION.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE RATHER UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY...MAY BE
ISSUED WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...I.E. LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...AND A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HWRF AND GFDL MODELS' TRACKS REMAINING OFFSHORE
LONGER THAN UTILIZED HERE ALLOW THOSE MODELS TO INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION UP TO A 40-45 KT TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE DECAY
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS REMAIN JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD
FOR A TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION STILL IS
CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...A
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL IF
THE CENTER AND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINBANDS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF HONDURAS AND
PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS CALL FOR DISSIPATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITHIN FOUR DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  84.5W    25 KT...ON THE COAST
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N  85.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.8N  86.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 15.6N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.4N  88.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
 
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